Top US policymakers increasingly speak of Egypt as a problem to be managed, their attention focused on avoiding the worst-case outcomes of state collapse. The past four years have taken a serious toll on U.S.-Egypt ties. But 2015 offers potential opportunities, requiring the two countries to learn some lessons from the past and to look to the future.
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The prosperity of Sudan’s boom years ended when South Sudan seceded in 2011 and delivered a serious blow to its economy. The end of the oil years has reversed the great expansion of the middle class. Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for 2015. Whether the hitherto quiescent Khartoum bourgeoisie will make apparent its dissatisfaction at its bowed circumstances is one of Sudan’s pressing political questions.
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Ever since Gaddafi’s exit from the Libyan, the country has been a state in name alone, held together by a delicate balancing act of rival militias. But even this is now beginning to unravel, with devastating consequences for the country – and, potentially, for the rich Gulf petro-states who are watching these developments with barely-disguised terror. And unfortunately for them, no amount of unilateral airstrikes are likely to help.
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