Tag Archives: shale oil

With so much uncertainty around, it is no wonder the rebound in WTI—or Brent crude, for that matter—has not been greater. Even good news on the demand side, including an increase in Chinese oil imports and plans for expanding oil storage capacity, has not been enough to push prices much higher than $30 a barrel.

The ballooning number of uncompleted wells has repeatedly fueled speculation that a sudden rush of new supply might come if companies shift those wells into production. The latest crash in oil prices once again raises this prospect. 

If the US shale oil industry is still not profitable – after a decade of drilling, after major efficiency improvements since 2014, and after a sharp rebound in oil prices – when will it ever be profitable?

The International Energy Agency sees North American shale peaking towards the early part of the 2020s and declining thereafter. By the 2020s, the world will once again be dependent on traditional sources of supply – largely from the Middle East. But for new sources of supply that are not state-owned, the industry may have to shift back to the mega deepwater projects that they are beginning to shun today.

Not only are Russia and Saudi Arabia keeping production elevated, new gains in oil production from the Middle East could offset any declines in the United States.

The US oil rig count has plummeted since October 2014, falling from 1,609 down to 668 as of May 8. If oil companies oscillate between cutting back and adding more rigs as the price of oil bobs above and below the $60 mark, they won’t exactly be raking in the profits.

Low oil prices seem to benefit most countries, even oil producers. As long as the price does not fall below the level that OPEC members can withstand, they still profit. For other countries, low energy costs should be beneficial to consumers and to most industries, especially the transport and refining industries.