Tag Archives: Nouri al-Maliki

Turkey's game of playing all sides in the balance of power game is difficult to sustain. The downing by Turkey of a Russian jet conducting air strikes over northern Syria is just the first move in the new phase of this game, and analysts should probably start looking at ISIS oil sales to Turkey in their examinations of why Turkey downed a Russian jet at a time when the Russians were specifically targeting ISIS-controlled oil facilities and tankers.

Taking advantage of the power vacuum left by the flight of the Iraqi security forces from Mosul and its environs, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has sent its peshmerga fighters into large swathes of northern Iraq, most notably Kirkuk and its oilfields. These gains have given the KRG new forms of leverage with Baghdad in negotiating Kurdish nationalist demands. They also have triggered expectations of Kurdish statehood among the Kurdish population of Iraq, a long-sought goal that could be bankrolled by large-scale, independent Kurdish oil exports.

Obama has been forced to chose between courses of action which all seem likely to end badly, and this is the legacy of the American decision to invade and occupy Iraq in 2003. That is the original sin of American strategic miscalculation in the 21st century, and it will continue to define the terms of its engagement with the region for the foreseeable future.

In the commotion created by the Arab Spring and following disturbances, the focus of international politics moved away from Iraq. The especially brutal civil war in Syria, the coup d’état and subsequent turbulence in Egypt, the tensions in Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen and the elections in Iran, have all diverted international attention away from Iraq. However, Iraq is still located at the …