Immersed in turmoil for various reasons ever since the Arab Spring started with Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in Tunisia on Dec 18, 2010, separating the permutations and combinations of allies and foes in the Middle East given any country or sub-region is mind-boggling. Beset with multiple crises ourselves, mostly of our own making, we are desperately attempting to blunder into another complication, one that could severely exacerbate the fragile existing faultlines in our society, a potential “Pakistan Spring”.
By Imtiaz Gul
What is the most effective way of fighting irregular forces of terrorism and extremism or even reacting to calamities? Is it proactive mediation and reliance on the tools of soft power i.e., good and merit-based governance as a long-term strategy, or is it through the hard power of the state alone? Does the hard power provide lasting victory over unregulated evil? Can a state succeed against crime, calamity and terror if its governance structures are cluttered in a reactive mode? Also, can a country make the right decisions if most of the political discourse on national and international issues is usually dictated more by emotions and less by rationality.
The Pakistan government’s response to the Yemen crisis offers one example of a state that lacks proactive intuition and only reacts when surrounded by crisis or hit by calamity. Most countries — including the United States, the UK, Germany — acted well ahead of time and had their citizens evacuated from Yemen without allowing fear and panic to perpetuate. Sadly, some 2,500 Pakistani citizens, as of March 30, still await evacuation and this reflects either the willful oversight of an imminent crisis or wishful optimism of the Pakistani diplomatic mission in Sanaa. Did it issue any caution or advisory, at least to those citizens who were closer to the advancing Houthi militias?
The trouble in Yemen had been brewing for several years and this simmering conflict turned into a regional conflict as Saudi Arabia initiated strikes on Houthi rebels. The government apparently lost no time in blindly committing military support to the Saudi Arabian monarch during the prime minister’s specially organised tour to the Kingdom in March. The evacuation of Pakistanis stranded in Yemen was probably an afterthought. Pakistani political parties, intelligensia and the civil society at large, on the other hand, have loudly begun opposing their country’s active participation in the Saudi-led war on Yemen. They want the government to bring the issue to parliament before taking any final decision. Khursheed Shah made a similarly confused and funny demand to convene an all-parties’ conference (APC) before going to war with the Yemeni rebels on Saudi Arabia’s advice.
Here are three basic questions: what is parliament for, if the leader of the opposition in the same parliament asks for an APC? Two, do these parties realize that even countries such as Germany and France often find it hard to escape the compulsions of geopolitics and sooner or later join the bandwagon of international coalitions? Thirdly, can the prime minister of a beleaguered country where economic adversity grows by the day and teeming millions are jobless, simply disregard the fact that more than three million Pakistanis i.e., three million Pakistani households, are employed in Saudi Arabia? Half of our remittances come from them. Can any government afford a flat refusal in such circumstances? This is easier said than done. Finally, while the country finds itself in an extremely difficult situation, its economic independence and political integrity does rest on long-term professional management and indiscriminate service delivery. Globally, only those nations command respect and embrace success which think ahead. Those caught in a reactive mode — and governed by familial dynasties — can at best hope to fearfully muddle along the course of history, getting battered and bruised every now and then.
This article first appeared in The Express Tribune, a leading Pakistan daily. Click here to go to the original.
Meeting in Sharm Al Sheikh, Heads of 22 nations of the Arab League agreed upon a “Joint Arab Military Force”, six countries volunteering participation. A prime beneficiary of Saudi financial aid, Egypt immediately pledged substantial air, sea and land forces, the proposed 40000 strong force will take time to become operational, Egypt seems to have forgotten its decade-long horrible experience in the 1960s in Yemen (with the Houthis as Royalists fighting the Egyptian-supported Republicans) as its own “Vietnam”, losing over 15000 dead out of an expeditionary force touching at one time 50000 soldiers and airmen. After a decade of slaughter Nasser agreed to sign a peace treaty and the whole Egyptian contingent was withdrawn. Hell-bent on destroying Iran’s nuclear capacity and with a vested interest in keeping the present Egyptian regime led by President Gen Sisi secure, Israel has become a de-facto but silent member of the so-called “Sunni Coalition”. Conversely Israel clandestinely supported the Royalists against the Egyptians in the 60s.
Suffering dramatic reverses at the hands of the Islamic State (IS) or “Daesh”, US training teams re-grouped and re-trained Iraq’s forces on a fast-track basis. In a contradiction, Iranian militia with the Iraqi forces attempting to re-take Tikrit are protesting US involvement in airstrikes against Daesh concentrations. Proxies supported by Turkey and Jordan are already combating Iranian proxies supporting Syria’s Assad Regime. Inbuilt tensions are threatening to tear apart the “coalitions of convenience” formed an adhoc basis to fight the forces of disorder on the one hand and of order in the other in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen.
Pakistan is in a Catch-22 situation, damned if it joins the Saudi-led so-called “Sunni Coalition” and damned if it does not. Add the generosity of the Saudis during times of our need and the deep-felt urge of most able-bodied Pakistanis to volunteer safeguarding the territorial integrity of the holy lands against aggression from any quarter and we find ourselves in a bind over the mode and manner of how to assist the Saudis. Given our ongoing unfinished fight to eradicate terrorism from its roots, with our resources already badly over-stretched, would we be able to spare troops to join such a coalition? It would be wrong morally to be (or seem to be) part of the so-called “Sunni Coalition”, not only would this jeopardize our friendly ties with our western neighbor Iran, but the perception of taking sides in a possible Shia-Sunni divide would trigger an apocalypse within the country. Barely beneath the surface, the faultiness would be exploited to the hilt by the terrorists (and others) to exacerbate sectarian divisions.
The Pakistan Govt has denied the sending of troops to join the Coalition, a ministerial-level evaluation team will “asses the situation on the ground”. The Saudi official news agency however quoted PM Mian Nawaz Sharif pledging to the Saudi King “the entire potential of our Armed Forces to Saudi Arabia”, very generous of him! Those wishing us ill, including some of our politicians, would certainly like the Army to jump into the fray and be cut to size. Fools rush in where angels fear to trend. Providing material support within the Saudi territorial limits, the guarantee must be that our troops will not be part of the “Coalition”, only engaging the hostiles if and when they come across the international border.
One Mechanized Brigade was detached from Pakistan’s “Main Task Force” (Mechanised Division) at Tabuk and placed at Nagran on the Yemen border during “Operation Desert Storm”, the first Gulf War (1991). This freed Saudi troops for operations in Iraq and Kuwait. A principle was established, that Pakistani troops would defend the Kingdom, but would not cross the border. Neither did Egyptian Forces but even than Egypt got its entire debt of US$ 12-15 billion written off, we got a pittance in comparison. A similar arrangement could be done with a mandate on the already established principle of not crossing the international border. Hostile artillery fire and threatening posture of Scud Missiles across the border must be exceptions for neutralizing. Another option would pre-position a skeleton force with weapons, vehicles and equipment for a Mechanised Division. With imminent danger of Houthi rebels (or anyone else for that matter) transgressing into Saudi territory this force can be beefed up by air within hours by troops already earmarked. Our mission must be clearly defined as separate from the proposed “Joint Arab Military Force” and out of their command structure. Fortunately the naming of the force as “Arab” gives us a face-saving “out”.
Instead of prolonging the conflict which could cause us endless domestic grief, our historical ties with the “proxy” antagonists in Yemen can facilitate bringing peace into the strife-ridden nation. Both Pakistan and Turkey, President Erdogan’s recent comments about Iran notwithstanding, can play a great role in defusing the situation. Ours should be a “coalition of convenience” to contain further conflict and facilitate peace in Yemen.
The writer is a leading defense and political analyst of Pakistan. He can be contacted at email@example.com