Pakistan in Political Turmoil – Five Unanswered Questions

1- Will the no-trust move succeed?

Pakistan has no history of a prime minister being voted out through a no-confidence motion. The chances of success of the motion against Khan are even. The opposition parties’ confidence level is also high because of the growing and visible rift within PTI. Aleem Khan, one of his close confidants, has switched sides and joined a dissident group within the party, led by Jehangir Khan Tareen, a sugar baron who once enjoyed very close relations with Khan.

The dissident group’s demands include replacing Usman Buzdar, the controversial sheepish chief minister of Punjab province. Buzdar’s appointment has remained problematic not just with the opposition, within the PTI but also with the country’s powerful civil-military establishment. A PTI outsider, Buzdar has been ruling Pakistan’s largest province since Khan’s dramatic ascension to power in the 2018 elections with a thin majority. If the no-confidence motion against Khan succeeds, the Buzdar government in Punjab is unlikely to survive. But new reports say given the infighting within the party he is considering replacing Buzdar. Will he replace Buzdar, and will this late move save him from being voted out remains a big question.

2- Is Pakistan’s military involved?

Pakistan’s powerful military has a history of political maneuvering to control and steward the democratic dispensation. Khan’s relations with the military have remained bumpy. Grapevines in Islamabad speculate that the trust level between him and the military has been on a slippery slope in recent weeks. “One reason for the opposition’s pressure on Khan government is the reports making the rounds that the military chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who is retiring this November, wants yet another extension in service,” an informed source told Pakistan Week from Islamabad over the phone.

At March 8th presser, the opposition leaders, who often accuse the military of bringing Khan into power through electoral fraud, avoided criticizing the military. The sources in Islamabad said there were significant signatures of the military somehow influencing the events. “The changing attitude of the political faces of the military, especially PML-Q of Chaudharies of Gujrat, MQM and a few actors within the PTI, shows that all may not be as rosy as the Khan government would like Pakistanis to believe,” the source added.

Pakistan military’s spokesman Major General Babar Iftikhar refused to comment on the reports of the military supporting the opposition movement. If Khan is voted out, the military is unlikely to escape the blame.

3- Do the US and the West want to dislodge Khan?

Many Pakistanis suspect that the opposition’s confidence is reflective of the support it may be receiving from the international players. Khan is known for his vocal criticism of the US and EU. His latest tirade against the US and EU, which are Pakistan’s largest trading partners as well, came on March 6 during a public meeting in the Punjab province.

“What Pakistan got out of supporting the West apart from losing 80,000 of its citizens, displacement of 3.5 million people, and losing over $100 billion,” he told his supporters. His speech was interpreted by American analysts here in the US as reflective of him feeling the growing pressure of the opposition moves.

“Facing mounting political pressure & an impending no-confidence vote, Imran Khan gave a blistering speech meant to fire up his support base w/its focus on the corrupt opposition & criticism of the US/West-two of his favorite themes going back to his earliest days as a politician,” tweeted Michael Kugelman, South Asia senior associate at The Wilson Center.

Michael, however, did not see any connection between Khan’s political troubles and the so-called international establishment. In a subsequent tweet, he avoided making any projections, saying: “There’s often been noise about threats to IK’s hold on power over his nearly 4 years office, and each time it’s ended up being much ado about nothing.”

Unlike Kugelman, some senior Pakistani analysts and top former officials have speculated that the no-confidence motion is not a coincidence. One such comment which made headlines was by Lt. Gen (Read) Haroun Aslam, who tweeted: “Hype in anti-Imran Khan campaign is home grown? Hell No. “Regime change” familiar tactics of US & allies.”

General Haroun is a familiar name in Pakistan. He was a top contender to become the head of the military during the government of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who superseded him and elevated Raheel Sharif to the position. General Haroun, following the military’s tradition, later resigned. No wonder, his comments on the opposition’s move made it to the headlines. Thus the so-called international establishment may or may not be involved in the efforts for Khan’s ouster, it remains part of political discourse and blame-game.

4- Will a successful no-confidence motion solve Pakistan’s economic challenges?

Changing a sitting government through a parliamentary vote is a pure democratic exercise and Pakistan’s opposition has every right to use it. However, just a change in government may not be enough if it cannot change the life of average Pakistanis facing record inflation, unemployment, and other economic challenges.

Imran Khan may not have delivered perfect governance but his performance is not as terrible that should warrant him being replaced. And also, a change would have been acceptable if the opposition parties were offering a solid economic plan and an all-endearing foreign policy vision. But the unfortunate reality is that the opposition has no economic plan or national vision that can be considered competing or promising. In fact, the opposition has no plan other than ousting Khan, which basically is no plan for Pakistan.

Prime Minister Imran Khan has always struggled to come up to the expectations of many voters, both because of the lack of experience in governance and questionable choices he has made in choosing his team. But there is no denying the fact that the direction he is taking Pakistan into, despite all its weaknesses, remains most promising. May it be increasing the country’s exports, decreasing the current account deficit or dealing with COVID 19 pandemic or building new water reservoirs, or making efforts to meet the climate change challenge with national tree plantations, etc., his efforts are visible.

Thus, if the no-confidence move succeeds, there is no guarantee that it will bring political and economic stability. In fact, it will usher in a new era of political instability and economic depression. In a nutshell, Pakistan’s opposition may deliver a new government but it will push Pakistan into more challenging times. The opposition will get the most while Pakistanis will get nothing out of the no-confidence resolution if it succeeds.

5- Will a failed no-confidence bring political stability?

If the no-confidence motion fails, it is unlikely to bring the political tensions down. Prime Minister Khan has promised to press the corruption cases against the opposition even more if the no-confidence motion fails. His public statements are enough to give any future actions a semblance of political victimization. Thus political instability may haunt Pakistan until the next elections. The no-confidence is a non-starter for average Pakistanis and is pushing Pakistan into more avoidable instability.

The writer is a New York-based journalist of Pakistan origin.