European governments have yet to learn a key lesson from the war in Ukraine. The alternative reality the Kremlin lives in is becoming increasingly dangerous.
It's a confluence of local, regional, national and, possibly, foreign interests.
The United States remains the largest arms exporter, increasing its global share of arms exports from 32 to 37 percent between 2011–15 and 2016–20. The USA supplied major arms to 96 states in 2016–20, far more than any other supplier.. Middle Eastern arms imports grow most, says SIPRI.
Grand bargains are tough to achieve but, eventually, Turkey and the EU will have to strike up a working partnership whereby they cooperate on some issues and compete on others.
With so few issues apparently actually resolved, it’s little wonder that it took just days for new signs of tension to reappear after the agreement.
Joe Biden has a longstanding relationship with the Western Balkans. A re-energized US policy on the region could be transformative, especially when working in tandem with the EU.
Year after year, Moscow is moving east, enhancing its ties to China. Year after year, New Delhi is moving west, building stronger links to the US. If this trend continues into the mid-term future, the two friendly countries might ultimately find themselves in the opposite geopolitical and economic blocks, and the Eurasian space will split into two pieces. Over time, Moscow and New Delhi will find it more challenging to maintain their bilateral cooperation even at the current levels, not to mention it is further deepening and broadening.
It looks like the UK government will claim victory by arguing that it is now able to escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice while getting tariff and quota-free access for goods exported to the EU.
The deep Indian Ocean is far less studied than the depths of the other oceans, for economic reasons: it is ringed by underdeveloped countries.
BRI is not a concept anymore but a functional reality from the east of Asia to the west of Europe and the territories in between. CPEC will be an enormous force-multiplier north to south, connecting China and Central Asia to Middle East and North Africa through Pakistan.