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The recently released report reveals that Bhutan’s population will reach 883,866 in 2047. Further, the report reveals that Bhutan has been experiencing a sharp decline in the number of babies born in recent years.
This trend is expected to continue with fertility rate remaining below the replacement level of 2.1. The fertility rate looks at the number of children given birth by a woman during her entire reproductive age. At present, a woman in the reproductive age is giving birth to 1.9 babies. This is expected to decrease to 1.7 by 2032- a point where there is no return.
The declining fertility rate means by 2047, only 11 babies would be born per 1000 people. This will substantially hit the annual population growth rate, which will reach just 0.27 percent in 2047 from the current 0.99 percent. However, the number of deaths, which is the mortality rate, is also expected to fall.
The crude death rate, which is deaths per thousand populations, will remain marginally same at eight deaths per thousand people. By the mid-2020s, working-age population would constitute of 70 percent of the country’s total population. From the present 26 percent of the child population, it will drop to 17 percent from the mid-2020s, states the report.
On the flipside, the aging population will see its number rise to 13 percent from current 6 percent. The report also indicates more than 260,000 people will reside in Thimphu by 2047, double the size of the current population.
People living in urban areas will outweigh those in rural areas. However, apart from Thimphu, no other districts will see a population of over 100,000 persons. With the report mentioning a sharp decline in fertility rates, the population in the school going age would decline gradually calling for a policy shift in the education system.
By 2047, half of Bhutan’s population will be above 40 years of age. This, as per the report will see an increase in non-communicable and degenerative diseases, giving more pressure on the health and other social services.
This article first appeared in BBS. Click here to go to the original
